1.0 Chelsea -1, -1.5 (-105)
Chelsea haven’t been playing well and certainly aren’t steamrolling teams, even lesser opposition at Stamford Bridge. I can see why Albion would get some love in this spot. That being said, Albion hasn’t been playing particularly well either, save for a 2-0 win at Anfield, which I think may have been more the Reds failures than Albion’s successes.
Chelsea had a mid-week FA Cup matchup with struggling Middlesbrough where they coasted to a victory. I’m expecting this to look less like Liverpool-WBA and more like Liverpool-Swansea. Granted, I"m not thinking 5-0, but I like Chelsea by at least two goals here.
0.25 Reading +700 / 0.25 Draw +400
Everton is my squad, but they are really struggling at the moment and certainly are not in top form. The Toffees are usually strong finishers, but slow starters where this season appears to be the opposite.
Howard has been dreadful and the once vaunted backline has seemed to crack. The starting ten are solid, but the team lacks any real quality depth. I’m giving Reading a shot here, as they tend to play tougher against better teams while struggling with those closer to the bottom of the table.
Goodison is a tough place to play and Everton are the more talented side, but this is pretty hefty price tag for a team struggling, especially defensively. I thought about placing the full wager on the win, but protected myself a bit with the draw.
I think Reading stays up. This team always seems to pull something out of their ass. They came from nowhere to win the championship last season and have the grit IMO to do just enough to reach 16[SUP]th[/SUP]-17[SUP]th[/SUP] in the table. I’m expecting QPR and Wigan to go down with a surprise exit from West Ham. They are currently +1000 to be relegated which I may throw something small on.
1.0 Manchester United -1.5, -2 +130
I’m expecting a route here to the tune of 3-0, 4-0. Norwich are fresh off a thrilling come from behind home victory over Everton, where they scored two goals in the final seven-eight minutes to rally and United just keep rolling along.
United aren’t thrashing teams, but they are consistently winning. I think this one lines up for said thrashing. A horrid road side off a huge, late home victory coming to Old Trafford to face the red hot champions in waiting – this could get ugly.
0.5 Bolton +170
Barnsley were red hot after the managerial change until they were routed at Bristol City. Was that a bump in the road or a sign of things to come? I’m not sure, but I am expecting this team to come back to reality.
Bolton are playing very well and still have an outside shot at a playoff spot, especially with a few sides ahead of them struggling a bit. The Wanderers are 4-4-2 in their last ten in the league and 3-2-0 in their last five, including an impressive win over Hull and a draw at Nottingham Forest.
Defensively, Bolton is allowing less than a goal per game in their last ten and has faced some of the championships strongest sides. I think there is some value here at the +170.
0.5 Blackburn -110
The Rovers are floundering along at 3-4-3 in their last ten, but have looked dreadful in their last few outings getting blasted at Leicester and Hull and struggling to a draw at home versus Leeds. However, Blackburn seems to have a knack for taking care of bottom tier teams and I expect them to get the full points here.
0.5 Blackpool/Bristol City Under 2.5 +100
Blackpool has gone over in six of ten, but have played to three straight unders failing to score one goal over that span. Bristol City have also played to six overs in ten matches and are coming off an eight goal shootout that ended Barnsley’s hot run.
I’m expecting a tight low scoring affair with a 0-0, 1-0 Blackpool victory as the final.
0.5 Brighton/Huddersfield Under 2.5 -120
Brighton has split their last ten totals, but has gone under in four consecutive. The side is playing really well as they make a push into the playoffs and they have been getting it done defensively during this recent run.
Huddersfield has gone under in six of ten, but when they go over they go way over with two recent 6-1 road thrashings at Leicester and Nottingham. I’m expecting a 1-0 or 2-0 victory for Brighton, to stay under the number, as they continue their surge.
On my radar, were Sunderland +140, Charlton +160 and Sheffield Wednesday/Nottingham Forest Under 2.5 (-125). I’m still looking at these, but I think I’m going to pass, Charlton deserves another look at this price.
GL to all.
